The first point about the Shia/Sunni schism is the primary reason I believe that the Hashemite King is the ideal compromise and yet also qualified choice to head the new nation. The Hashemite family, and particularly the lineage of the King are direct recorded descendants of the Grandfather of the Prophet. Thus he is "of the family household" of the Prophet. But he is also a Sunni. Until the House of Saud removed the Hashemite's from the lower Arabian desert, the family had been the rulers of Mecca and Medina for centuries. They are still technically the "keepers" of the Temple Mount in Jerusalem to this day.
It is my belief that such historical roots plus factors of relative stability in dealing with all sides by both the King and his late father, make him a good choice to lead a larger nation.
As to the entire reason for a "larger" nation. Or "Greater Syria". Or Syriaq. It is for two primary and yet entirely separate goals. The first is the concept that the only reason that Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon would even consider the possibility of unification is because it might, .... just might...... also include and help resolve the Palestinian issue. And I mean the issue both within the Palestinian Territories and within each of the respective nations and their massive refugee problem that has been going on now for 65 years. It is not so much that Syria would join Iraq as it would be Syria joining with Palestine and Iraq joining with Palestine and Jordan joining with Palestine. And in the reverse, scenarios for peace in that area might also be more forthcoming if it involved not Palestinians but Syriaqi's or Syriaqians??
This also brings me back to the keystone position of Jordan in making such a unification possible.
Perhaps more than the entire group of nations forming Syriaq the more likely, but less viable to me, would be for the West Bank of Palestine, Jordan, Syria and Sunni and Kurdish Iraq creating a Greater Syria or Syriaq.
This would leave Gaza, Lebanon and the Shia dominated governorates of Iraq remaining outside the union. Ironically however I believe that if unification did look possible it would be Iran pressuring the three regions to be "inside the tent wielding power" and not outside looking in.
As for Russians. If the "theme" of a peaceful solution was "reunification of a lost greater nation" or "Greater Syria" and the current Syrian military were to remain, along with most of the upper government of Syria in some capacity and Russian forces got to keep the bases there, it would be Putin himself personally escorting Assad to the door. Whether it is "Truth and Reconciliation Councils" or whatever that keep the Syrians from wholesale removal as in the catastrophic blunder by the US in Iraq, a change at only the very top would be in the best interest of all.
And besides Russia who is already there and Iran who is already the "elephant" in the room also, this version of events leaves the entire solution to the problem entirely within the boundaries of those who are to be directly effected or not. And it is to be a democratic election to decide to join or not.
Too many minorities such as Christians, Kurds, Druze, secular Sunni's and Palestinians are flung as minorities among two or more of the nations involved. Their long term advancement would be much more viable within a single legal entity.
(Historical note: from 400 BC to 100 AD as an unscripted language and then from 100 AD to 800 AD Syriac was the Aramaic language of the entire Fertile Crescent.)
A Gordian knot yes. But either hack it apart with a sword or start picking at the various threads to see where they lead. For those in the knot there is not much choice for a tenable third option. And it is theirs to undo anyway.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Legislature. Lower and Upper Houses.
The following is just a suggested outline form for a possible legislative structure. Of course it would be determined by an elected constitutional committee or convention.
Lower House:
Citizens of Syriaq age 30 and above. Members elected for 4 year terms unless lower house fails a vote of confidence. Then Lower House and Prime Minister and Cabinet resign and await new elections within say 90 days. The King appoints leader of the largest political bloc in elections to form a new government.
Initially 350 seats based upon districts of 200,000 citizens each. Districts are redesigned every 10 years based upon census and number to maintain 350 seats. District boundaries are determined and reset every 10 years by an election commission appointed by the King. In the event of enlargement of the Kingdom the number of seats may change. Otherwise the number shall remain the same and the amount of people per district shall change to be as approximately the same population in each district as possible.
Elections for the Lower house shall commence by determined voting method by all eligible voters in each district from the first election onward.
Upper House:
Citizens of Syriaq age 40 and above. Members elected for 6 year terms with 1/3 of the body being elected every two years. 122 seats. Two for each governorate. No two members of any one governorate shall be elected in the same election except to fill the remaining term on a vacated seat.
At the beginning of the new nation 1 member from each governorate shall be appointed by the King for 1/2 of the initial 6 year seats, 1/2 for the 4 year seats and 1/2 for the 2 year seats. This shall be done in consultation with leading citizens of each governorate. In two years those seats having been filled for two years shall all then be open to election by eligible voters in their respective governorates to begin serving a standard 6 year term. In 4 years the seats of that group shall also be opened to full election to 6 year terms. In 6 years all seats will then be open for direct election by eligible voters in their governorates to complete the standard 6 year cycle for all members.
While the lower house "falls" if the majority party or coalition looses a "vote of confidence" and must stand for re election within 90 days, the upper house does not "fall". The body of the upper house remains as is and continues to follow their 6 year cycles.
The initial appointment by 1/2 of the upper body by the King, the staggered election cycles and the remaining in office while the lower house may "fail" are all designed to instill a sense of trust, experience and stability by those members serving in the upper house.
All legislation must pass both houses by a simple majority or by percentages agreed to in the constitution. The King may veto any legislation but the legislature can then over ride the veto by a larger percentage of votes, again determined by the constitution.
The King may dissolve the lower house at any time but it must have the approval of the upper house by a set majority. Elections for the lower house must then also be within 90 days. The upper house may not dissolve the lower house without first action by the King.
Lower House:
Citizens of Syriaq age 30 and above. Members elected for 4 year terms unless lower house fails a vote of confidence. Then Lower House and Prime Minister and Cabinet resign and await new elections within say 90 days. The King appoints leader of the largest political bloc in elections to form a new government.
Initially 350 seats based upon districts of 200,000 citizens each. Districts are redesigned every 10 years based upon census and number to maintain 350 seats. District boundaries are determined and reset every 10 years by an election commission appointed by the King. In the event of enlargement of the Kingdom the number of seats may change. Otherwise the number shall remain the same and the amount of people per district shall change to be as approximately the same population in each district as possible.
Elections for the Lower house shall commence by determined voting method by all eligible voters in each district from the first election onward.
Upper House:
Citizens of Syriaq age 40 and above. Members elected for 6 year terms with 1/3 of the body being elected every two years. 122 seats. Two for each governorate. No two members of any one governorate shall be elected in the same election except to fill the remaining term on a vacated seat.
At the beginning of the new nation 1 member from each governorate shall be appointed by the King for 1/2 of the initial 6 year seats, 1/2 for the 4 year seats and 1/2 for the 2 year seats. This shall be done in consultation with leading citizens of each governorate. In two years those seats having been filled for two years shall all then be open to election by eligible voters in their respective governorates to begin serving a standard 6 year term. In 4 years the seats of that group shall also be opened to full election to 6 year terms. In 6 years all seats will then be open for direct election by eligible voters in their governorates to complete the standard 6 year cycle for all members.
While the lower house "falls" if the majority party or coalition looses a "vote of confidence" and must stand for re election within 90 days, the upper house does not "fall". The body of the upper house remains as is and continues to follow their 6 year cycles.
The initial appointment by 1/2 of the upper body by the King, the staggered election cycles and the remaining in office while the lower house may "fail" are all designed to instill a sense of trust, experience and stability by those members serving in the upper house.
All legislation must pass both houses by a simple majority or by percentages agreed to in the constitution. The King may veto any legislation but the legislature can then over ride the veto by a larger percentage of votes, again determined by the constitution.
The King may dissolve the lower house at any time but it must have the approval of the upper house by a set majority. Elections for the lower house must then also be within 90 days. The upper house may not dissolve the lower house without first action by the King.
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Posted in comments in Yahoo News May 19, 2013
Negotiations should not be between Assad and the rebels. The negotiations should be between the powers in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestinian Terr. to merge as one nation. Greater Syria or Syriaq if you will. Make the vote simple. Each country or region votes Yes/No to join the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Amman as the Capital. Iraq can vote by each of the three separate districts, Shia, Sunni, Kurd. Palestine can vote West Bank and Gaza separately. All the rest have a country wide vote.
Even Jordan can vote No but for Amman to be the potential capital of a nation of 70 million would be the biggest economic boost to that city/region since it was named Philadelphia and Petra was down the road a ways. It is not like Amman does not have citizens of the entire region in the city for sanctuary as it is.
That was once the dream, a Greater Syria, a 100 years ago. The Levant got lost when the UK and France denied that happening. Time to start again.
Depending upon the outcome each region or voting country keeps current government while new government is formed among those voting yes. Diaspora get to vote. Those voting no just go back to their independent government. Every government respects the will of all the other regions governments regardless of vote.
Some keys points to keep in mind. No matter the outcome, except for the very top of Syrian regime which may stay or go, the rest has to stay for the foreseeable future. Greater success depends upon that. Also the Syrian military has to stay with perhaps a few off the top. Again this should not even be debated. Also Russia has to stay. This is also true of all other governments and militarises in countries or regions voting as well.
Making it a Hashemite Kingdom for continuity sake and stability at the top is key for success. Many have already voted for Jordan with their feet in fleeing from other countries. To those countries saying yes to unification perhaps the King assigns interim government while constitution and government is formed. If Assad wins Syriaq wide vote to be PM he stays. If he looses he is gone. Any country voting yes has their military immediately transferred to the control of the Kingdom.
Kurds get to keep Autonomous Region designation with perhaps a few other governorates added. Druze and Alawites perhaps Autonomous Regions as well but only one area each and each must be entirely contiguous. Everyone else is in the big tent.
All current militia's, armed rebels etc, no matter what country go to their respective corners to await vote and chance to build government. Any person not a citizen of countries, territories involved in merger/government talks to leave the area. If not Syrian, Jordanian, Iraq forces to escort them out. Otherwise cease fire until unification vote and beyond.
Besides Russia and perhaps China talking to Iran everyone else can just stand by and see what happens.
There is a lot of regional strife in virtually all these respective countries and regions that can address solutions a lot more effectively and long term united than divided. Also the economy of all has a much better chance to blossom and grow united as one.
It is true it should be Syria that decides its future. But the real Syria. Greater Syria. Or Syriaq. That country should have been there all along.
Friday, May 3, 2013
posted as a comment to Al Monitor May 3, 2013
A peace proposal with Jordan as the keystone to the path to peace for the region with a 12 point list of ideas guiding the proposal.
1. Recognition that the key to peace in the region is not division of established nation states and religious groups but instead unification. This includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian Territories and logically the Sinai.
2. Recognition that the Hashemite Kingdom is indeed geographically and historically central to the long term unity of the region.
3. Recognition that for every current nation state in the region there are at least two, if not more, religious and ethnic groups who have shared and called that respective region their home for centuries.
4. Recognition that for centuries the people of this region considered themselves part of one great whole and lived in relative harmony with their neighbors.
5. Recognition that while in some nation states one or more ethnic and/or religious groups hold dominate power their fellow ethnic and/or religious contemporaries in other nation states are in peril of great physical danger in the current and/or coming time frame depending upon various outcome scenarios.
6. Recognition that as past, current and future events have and will unfold it is likely that even greater numbers of refugees and diaspora of an unprecedented scale will be displaced unless solutions are found soon.
7. Recognition that even those citizens not forced to move have and will continue to experience extreme hardship, fear for the future and the waste of what could have been a more productive and happy existence.
8. Recognition that if a peaceful solutions to events throughout the region are not found soon the numbers of foreign citizens of nations not directly involved will increase in number joining the armed conflict.
9. Recognition that in the case of Iraq, the wholesale removal of thousands upon thousands of members of the army, government and other civil jobs upon the fall of the Baath regime was a grave error in judgement and cost the lives of literally tens of thousands of Iraqi citizens. Iraq has never recovered from such a blunder.
10. Recognition that whatever the outcome in Syria to repeat the errors expressed in #9 would be a tremendous error.
11. Recognition that the key to peace is to call upon all those involved to reach for a higher purpose and description of a national citizen. Asabiyya if you will.
12. There is no time like today.
I propose the creation of the Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq created by the unification of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian Territories and hopefully the transfer of sovereignty of the Sinai from Egypt to the Kingdom.
****While at first thought it seems as if this is the creation of a long held dream of a Greater Syria, I am of a mind that it is actually the creation of the long held dream of a Greater Palestinian Homeland. The vast majority of people in each of the nations of Syriaq would, I propose, agree that to join in a Greater Palestine over and above any other factor. Even the upper echelons of the Syrian government would be hard pressed to be perceived as standing in the way of the long held dream of a Greater Syria or Palestine. The retention of the Hashemite dynasty is primarily based upon historical recognition of the dynasty and its relationship and guardianship of religious sites throughout history. The dynasty would also allow for an anchor upon which to create a new nation, constitution and sense of unified citizenship. Finally the Kingdom is again the keystone to a unified and contiguous Greater Palestine. Thus too is the hope that Egypt will see this concept and consider the transfer of the Sinai to Syriaq. The final reason to hope for the transfer of sovereignty of the Sinai to Syriaq is that much of the industry in the way of transport such as oil transport being positioned in Aqaba might be moved further west to avoid ecological damage to the pristine Gulf of Aqaba****
I propose that it be a constitutional monarchy with a King as head of state, a bicameral legislature with a Prime Minister as head of government and independent judiciary.
****A bicameral legislature would hopefully allow for a greater balance of power between various religious and ethic groups in two separate but equal legislative bodies. Other than the 2 chambers proposal the legal framework that would allow so many diverse and wide ranging peoples to live in unity would indeed be created by those who under which such laws they would live.****
I propose that the Royal and Legislative capital be Amman. I propose that the highest court of the Judicial branch be established in Al Quds.
****The proposal of Amman as the capital is both a compromise for not choosing either Baghdad, Damascus, Aleppo, Beirut or Al Quds as the primary capital and the recognition that, as the capital of a country of some 70 million people, the economic foundation to the entire Amman region because of being the capital would replace years of having to rely on economic aid. Being the capital would require thousands of permanent jobs across the spectrum of talents for such a city. Amman, while also currently the home of the Hashemite dynasty, already has much of the infrastructure in place and is currently home to thousands upon thousands of diaspora from other nations. Amman has become the center of unified cause without perhaps truly realizing what a valuable mindset has already been developing. One of acceptance and diversity. There is perhaps not a single minority in what would be Syriaq who does not feel already welcome in Amman. While many may press for Al Quds to be the unified capital, I believe the factors of relative size and location make this unreasonable. Perhaps as a capital for a few millions of people, but not for a capital of a some 70+ million and growing population I do however believe that for Al Quds to be the Judicial capital is both historically symbolic and quite feasible relative to size and space needed.
One must also recognize that in a country such as Syriaq, with a common currency, markets, commercial laws, resources and talents the cities of Baghdad, Damascus, Aleppo, Hewler and Beirut would each individually be great economic, cultural, educational and religious centers in their own rights without being a national capital. ****
I propose keeping the current governorates or equivalent with perhaps additions that were being contemplated before unification. Thus between 59 and 65 governorates.
****I would hope that there is a great deal of governmental authority given to the governorate level. I also believe that it is imperative that the Kurdish Autonomous Region not only continue but perhaps be expanded to areas of Kurdish majority. I would, however not encourage other minorities to receive such autonomy but rather find that the level of authority reserved for the various governorates to be adequate. I would however propose that perhaps the Golan Heights be agreed to by both Israel and Syriaq to be a Druze Autonomous Zone.****
I propose that while encouraging the various foreign citizens who have come to the region to participate in the civil unrest will accept the concept of the Kingdom of Syriaq and return home it is my belief that it would be a very long term grave mistake to ask the Russians to leave. Indeed I would encourage perhaps an even greater presence.
The Kingdom of Syriaq, just by its much larger size and geography will need a small but capable defense force. This will require an army, air force, navy and some sort of coastal defense force for which the Russians could provide valuable assistance. As they are already there and would provide valuable assistance in the establishment of the Kingdom I would again highly recommend that they be encouraged to stay.
If the Kingdom is to also grow and thrive in the early first years the Syrian forces below the very upper echelons of power will be needed to be the core for an effective force. It is my belief that it would be a great mistake, no matter the outcome, to seek retaliation beyond the very highest members of the Syrian forces. To deploy many of these forces throughout the entire Kingdom of Syriaq, in use for training and border patrol should not be overlooked.
Thus too many civil servants, armed forces as well as technocrats will be needed to be transferred to other parts of the Syriaq nation as needed to rebuild the entire nation. Many regions of what would become Syriaq would perhaps receive, for the first time, serious attention and development from the national government. Regions such as the Litani Valley or central Syriaq.
This proposal is but a very broad outline of one such option for the region, although one in which I believe is the best possible solution to bring the entire region to a more peaceful and prosperous course.
What this idea is missing is both debate and leadership within the countries involved. The idea does ask that each and every ethnic and religious group cede some current political or religious power within their current nation state in order to protect, defend and join with their fellow citizens in neighboring nations to create a much larger common good.
Ibn Khaldun called it Asabiyya. Perhaps it is not too late to begin finding a new Asabiyya for peace to finally come to the region. Today is a good day to start.
1. Recognition that the key to peace in the region is not division of established nation states and religious groups but instead unification. This includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian Territories and logically the Sinai.
2. Recognition that the Hashemite Kingdom is indeed geographically and historically central to the long term unity of the region.
3. Recognition that for every current nation state in the region there are at least two, if not more, religious and ethnic groups who have shared and called that respective region their home for centuries.
4. Recognition that for centuries the people of this region considered themselves part of one great whole and lived in relative harmony with their neighbors.
5. Recognition that while in some nation states one or more ethnic and/or religious groups hold dominate power their fellow ethnic and/or religious contemporaries in other nation states are in peril of great physical danger in the current and/or coming time frame depending upon various outcome scenarios.
6. Recognition that as past, current and future events have and will unfold it is likely that even greater numbers of refugees and diaspora of an unprecedented scale will be displaced unless solutions are found soon.
7. Recognition that even those citizens not forced to move have and will continue to experience extreme hardship, fear for the future and the waste of what could have been a more productive and happy existence.
8. Recognition that if a peaceful solutions to events throughout the region are not found soon the numbers of foreign citizens of nations not directly involved will increase in number joining the armed conflict.
9. Recognition that in the case of Iraq, the wholesale removal of thousands upon thousands of members of the army, government and other civil jobs upon the fall of the Baath regime was a grave error in judgement and cost the lives of literally tens of thousands of Iraqi citizens. Iraq has never recovered from such a blunder.
10. Recognition that whatever the outcome in Syria to repeat the errors expressed in #9 would be a tremendous error.
11. Recognition that the key to peace is to call upon all those involved to reach for a higher purpose and description of a national citizen. Asabiyya if you will.
12. There is no time like today.
I propose the creation of the Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq created by the unification of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian Territories and hopefully the transfer of sovereignty of the Sinai from Egypt to the Kingdom.
****While at first thought it seems as if this is the creation of a long held dream of a Greater Syria, I am of a mind that it is actually the creation of the long held dream of a Greater Palestinian Homeland. The vast majority of people in each of the nations of Syriaq would, I propose, agree that to join in a Greater Palestine over and above any other factor. Even the upper echelons of the Syrian government would be hard pressed to be perceived as standing in the way of the long held dream of a Greater Syria or Palestine. The retention of the Hashemite dynasty is primarily based upon historical recognition of the dynasty and its relationship and guardianship of religious sites throughout history. The dynasty would also allow for an anchor upon which to create a new nation, constitution and sense of unified citizenship. Finally the Kingdom is again the keystone to a unified and contiguous Greater Palestine. Thus too is the hope that Egypt will see this concept and consider the transfer of the Sinai to Syriaq. The final reason to hope for the transfer of sovereignty of the Sinai to Syriaq is that much of the industry in the way of transport such as oil transport being positioned in Aqaba might be moved further west to avoid ecological damage to the pristine Gulf of Aqaba****
I propose that it be a constitutional monarchy with a King as head of state, a bicameral legislature with a Prime Minister as head of government and independent judiciary.
****A bicameral legislature would hopefully allow for a greater balance of power between various religious and ethic groups in two separate but equal legislative bodies. Other than the 2 chambers proposal the legal framework that would allow so many diverse and wide ranging peoples to live in unity would indeed be created by those who under which such laws they would live.****
I propose that the Royal and Legislative capital be Amman. I propose that the highest court of the Judicial branch be established in Al Quds.
****The proposal of Amman as the capital is both a compromise for not choosing either Baghdad, Damascus, Aleppo, Beirut or Al Quds as the primary capital and the recognition that, as the capital of a country of some 70 million people, the economic foundation to the entire Amman region because of being the capital would replace years of having to rely on economic aid. Being the capital would require thousands of permanent jobs across the spectrum of talents for such a city. Amman, while also currently the home of the Hashemite dynasty, already has much of the infrastructure in place and is currently home to thousands upon thousands of diaspora from other nations. Amman has become the center of unified cause without perhaps truly realizing what a valuable mindset has already been developing. One of acceptance and diversity. There is perhaps not a single minority in what would be Syriaq who does not feel already welcome in Amman. While many may press for Al Quds to be the unified capital, I believe the factors of relative size and location make this unreasonable. Perhaps as a capital for a few millions of people, but not for a capital of a some 70+ million and growing population I do however believe that for Al Quds to be the Judicial capital is both historically symbolic and quite feasible relative to size and space needed.
One must also recognize that in a country such as Syriaq, with a common currency, markets, commercial laws, resources and talents the cities of Baghdad, Damascus, Aleppo, Hewler and Beirut would each individually be great economic, cultural, educational and religious centers in their own rights without being a national capital. ****
I propose keeping the current governorates or equivalent with perhaps additions that were being contemplated before unification. Thus between 59 and 65 governorates.
****I would hope that there is a great deal of governmental authority given to the governorate level. I also believe that it is imperative that the Kurdish Autonomous Region not only continue but perhaps be expanded to areas of Kurdish majority. I would, however not encourage other minorities to receive such autonomy but rather find that the level of authority reserved for the various governorates to be adequate. I would however propose that perhaps the Golan Heights be agreed to by both Israel and Syriaq to be a Druze Autonomous Zone.****
I propose that while encouraging the various foreign citizens who have come to the region to participate in the civil unrest will accept the concept of the Kingdom of Syriaq and return home it is my belief that it would be a very long term grave mistake to ask the Russians to leave. Indeed I would encourage perhaps an even greater presence.
The Kingdom of Syriaq, just by its much larger size and geography will need a small but capable defense force. This will require an army, air force, navy and some sort of coastal defense force for which the Russians could provide valuable assistance. As they are already there and would provide valuable assistance in the establishment of the Kingdom I would again highly recommend that they be encouraged to stay.
If the Kingdom is to also grow and thrive in the early first years the Syrian forces below the very upper echelons of power will be needed to be the core for an effective force. It is my belief that it would be a great mistake, no matter the outcome, to seek retaliation beyond the very highest members of the Syrian forces. To deploy many of these forces throughout the entire Kingdom of Syriaq, in use for training and border patrol should not be overlooked.
Thus too many civil servants, armed forces as well as technocrats will be needed to be transferred to other parts of the Syriaq nation as needed to rebuild the entire nation. Many regions of what would become Syriaq would perhaps receive, for the first time, serious attention and development from the national government. Regions such as the Litani Valley or central Syriaq.
This proposal is but a very broad outline of one such option for the region, although one in which I believe is the best possible solution to bring the entire region to a more peaceful and prosperous course.
What this idea is missing is both debate and leadership within the countries involved. The idea does ask that each and every ethnic and religious group cede some current political or religious power within their current nation state in order to protect, defend and join with their fellow citizens in neighboring nations to create a much larger common good.
Ibn Khaldun called it Asabiyya. Perhaps it is not too late to begin finding a new Asabiyya for peace to finally come to the region. Today is a good day to start.
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Gertrude Bell and the loss of Greater Syria. Posted in a tread on Huffington Post.
There is a fascinating book called Gertrude Bell: Queen of the Desert, by Georgina Howell. The book describes Ms. Bells driven goal of creating what is present day Iraq. At the time there was competition among the British office in India, the Faisal camp, the Hashemite camp, the Mosul/Baghdad faction wanting to join Syria and finally the Cairo branch of the British foreign office and the Zionists all positioning for a final control or influence of the region. Playing them all against each other Ms Bell almost single handily created Iraq out of shear will. Intrigues were many and countless careers ruined in opposing Ms Bell. For a very short time at least two Hashemite brothers were installed as Kings of Iraq and Syria respectfully. But as you point out French and British intrigue doomed both to failure. What is most revealing to me in the biography however was, as again both you and I have stated, the Arabs of the region at the time just assumed that with the banishment of the Ottomans that the entire Arab world would be as one. It must also be mentioned here that at the time the Shia, Sunni, Kurds, Christians, Druze and Jews lived in relative peace throughout the entire Levant and had done so for centuries. The only division within the Arab world was between the House of Saud and the Hashemites. As until this time the Hashemites had controlled Mecca and Medina the Sauds did not have the respect nor long term good will of much of the Levant. The Saudi family driving the Hashemites from Mecca and Medina pretty much sealed the fate of the Saudi's not ruling the entire Arabia/Levant. Over the course of the next 25 years the UK, France and Zionists worked very hard to even further divide and control the peoples of the Levant. I again feel that the one true solution to the region is to wind back the clock (to go forward) to the time when the idea of a Greater Syria or perhaps Syriaq now was the overwhelming view of what the Arabs in the Levant had been dreaming for for centuries.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Economist Magazine, April 5, 2013 video "Time to Break Bread" comments by me.
The second and also extremely important reason that both Egypt and the entire Arab and Muslim world should support the idea of a "United Arab Republic" is for the possible solution to the quagmire that is Syria.
It is my belief that the solution for Syria is that either Syria gets bigger or collapses. There is no status quo left to return too in any meaningful short term scenario that does not involve years of civil war.
It is only by the "promise" of a Greater Syria do I foresee the Assad regime standing aside for a decades old dream by all Syrans. Besides the collapse of Syria it is the only rational argument for the Assad family to agree to give up power for the greater good.
And when I say Greater Syria I mean Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories (after final settlement with Israel). Compromise capital to be in Amman and to be a Hashemite Kingdom. The Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq if you will.
The only way you are going to get all the factions in all those countries to finally stop fighting and move on is to make them all members of an even greater group of minorities. Each country will join, not to initially find instant comradery with opposing sides, but to save their fellow sect members in neighboring states from unrelenting persecution, or massive retaliation at the end of current hostilities.
That said initially for the reason to unite, I think that all members of all the nations will find in short order that united they provide a much more advanced society than they have been independently for perhaps decades.
Again a common market, common currency. Ease of movement across a vast area of sects, groups, tribes and families that have not been within the same united borders since the Ottomans.
Indeed, this Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq was perhaps the goal of the majority of citizens in this region in 1914. 99 years later it might be the only solution to a regional problem by returning the clock to 1914 and starting over.
This of course would only work in great success with the use of "Truth and Reconciliation" programs.
Iraq brings energy and agriculture. It also brings the concentrated Shia presence to be a major voice in a united government.
Syria brings such assets as entertainment, agriculture and security expertise. It also brings an urban sectarian sensibility, long history and technical and industrial promise.
Lebanon brings financial expertise, a vastly underused water source in the Litani River and a many cultured balancing talent that has existed for decades.
Jordan brings the long history of the Hashemite family, light industry, tourism and the regions most long term relatively stable country.
If, in the wave of unification fever, the Palestinians wish to join the rush to become Syriaq, many former obstacles by both Israeli's and Palestinians might mean, after almost 70 years, a settlement can be reached in a conflict gone on too long.
As mentioned elsewhere, the addition of the Sinai to first Jordan and then Syriaq would do wonders to be the keystone of the idea, even though it is at a far southern border. I believe a transfer of the Sinai to Jordan would be the initial spark to success in the "Arab Spring" for 11 or more countries.
Which brings me back to Egypt and the topic here. There are 11 countries currently living on the edge of success or failure. More failure than any would like to admit.
As just two countries though, the future would look bright and the chances of the promises of the early Arab Spring, respect and dignity, jobs and equal opportunities would be more achievable to all, of all faiths and sects.
Friday, March 29, 2013
The Sinai catalyst for Levant transformation.
The transformation of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to the Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq came about much as the Arab Spring had. It was unexpected, developed in the most unlikely of circumstances and moved from idea to reality in rather unbelievable quickness.
It all started in the most unlikely of places. The Sinai.
But first a quick outline of major events and realities before the transformation.
There had indeed been a major shakeup in countries throughout the Arab world. What started in Tunisia as a call for economic and social equality moved quickly to Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria and to lesser extents in Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian territories.
Even more long term regional conditions had existed in Iraq for many years. After the invasion by coalition forces the various factions, religious and political, had been boiling to ever higher tensions and with no end to the carnage in site. The Kurds in the Northern Region had begun to enjoy many long sought freedoms but were still at odds with Baghdad. There was also the ever present scenario of Iraq splitting into 3 separate countries with what would have become an even greater conflict as to who owned what and where.
The Lebanese were locked in a 4 or 5 way stalemate depending upon how you viewed the players. Again the entire country was on the continuing edge of collapse.
The Palestinians were divided both geographically and politically into 2 separate groups with little in common and no unified position or leadership to move the region forward to a sovereign state.
Syria had entered its second year of armed uprising against the Assad regime. While the Assad regime was hanging on against multi pronged assaults the rebel forces were again also split by religious and political goals. No matter the outcome it was almost a unanimous agreement that Assad would be hard to dislodge, if at all, and whatever might happen in the future it seemed that Syria was destined to be divided into a series of regional power bases and a country torn apart by violence. This also led to continued speculation of massive deaths from retribution and a very long recovery period economically and socially for the entire country.
Jordan, while compared to its neighbors was relatively stable, the ever continuing cascade of refugees from Syria now joining refugees from Iraq and elsewhere were putting the usual strains on the economic and social fabric of the tiny Kingdom. Actual Jordanians were becoming, with each passing day, a smaller and smaller group within their own country. From an economic and political standpoint to accept the mass of refugees, especially Palestinian refugees from Syria, the offer of aid on the one hand for the refugees from Europe and the reality that this may mean a very long term multi year responsibility for the refugees, leading to perhaps citizenship, was a great conflict for the nation.
The influx of refugees was mitigated by the newly created push by Israel within the UN to declare all Palestinian diaspora in the region who were now on the move again to no longer have claim to the right of return.
Which brings us finally to the Sinai. Besides the tourist havens along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba, much of the Sinai had long been neglected by the Egyptians. Indeed the two governorates were the two least populated governorates in the country. They were mostly populated by Bedouin with which the Egyptians had little in common and even less understanding. As the Bedouin were not "of the river" they were always treated with little regard and interest by the majority of Egyptians. The return of the Sinai from Israel completed in 1982 was more for political prestige than returning fellow Egyptians to the homeland.
After the Arab Spring in Egypt in 2011 the tourism industry in the Sinai collapsed. Tensions created by the Bedouin to receive more attention from Cairo let to kidnappings, bombings and other acts of violence. This coupled with the Gaza being attached to the Sinai and all the political, social and cultural problems of the Sinai were becoming a very time consuming strain on a country much more concerned about events in Egypt proper. First and foremost was the need for IMF loans and other financial investments to revive an Egyptian economy.
From where or from whom the idea was first established has been lost in the shuffle of history. But the idea arose to have Egypt agree to transfer sovereignty of the two Sinai governorates to the Kingdom of Jordan in exchange for IMF and other loan guarantees. The long term reasoning behind the offer was that it in a sense "killed two birds with one stone". Egypt would receive much needed aid while transferring a very troubled region on the edge of the country to a country that seemed better equipped to relate to and deal with the Bedouins.
The transfer would also mean that the Kingdom of Jordan would be the primary border country, along with Israel, of the Palestinian Territories.
But in reality what it also meant that not only could Jordan take aid from European sources, in the form of debt forgiveness and other forms of aid, the Kingdom would receive a vast addition of land with existing and future tourism and other financial prospects. This addition of land and financial resources was the second part of the equation to deal with massive influx of new refugees into the Kingdom. The additional lands and economic prospects would make it much easier to not only take care of the refugees but to also disperse them away from the population centers of Jordan.
Although the Sinai had many industries such as tourism and petroleum, against the scale of Egypt's entire economy they were very minimal. The same industries added to the Kingdom of Jordan were, on the other hand, a massive boost to the economy of the Kingdom. Providing attention to not only the tourist and petroleum industries, the land reforms and access to the national government that the Bedouin now received was quite significant. It did not hurt that the Jordanian culture, which included large segments of Bedouin society, were much closer to the Bedouin citizens of the Sinai than they had ever been with Egypt proper.
The transfer of sovereignty from Egypt to Jordan contained the provision that all existing Egyptian citizens living in the Sinai would be allowed to remain there, as Egyptian citizens, as foreign workers and even landowners for as long as they wished. Or they could become Jordanian citizens upon acceptance by the Kingdom. The new Jordanian lands also meant the increase from 12 to 14 governorates. The addition of two completely new governorates in areas that had never been considered Jordanian lands was also have profound effects on how the people of Jordan viewed themselves in relation to the entire Levant. These two events were to have far reaching precedence in the coming months and years throughout the entire region and indeed the world.
The first benefit from the transfer was the return, almost overnight, of the great number of tourists who once flocked to the region. The second benefit was to change the western terminus of the Iraq/Aqaba oil pipeline to continue on to the oil terminal on the western shores of the Sinai.
It was also almost immediately agreed by the Kingdom and Israel to allow a secured, wall enclosed corridor just a few kilometers north of Eilat Israel that allow for a 4 lane highway, a two track railroad and a transit right of way for pipelines and electric power to connect the newly expanded Kingdom.
It was also during this period of reflecting on Egyptian boundaries and economic stimulus that the ground swell of support for the unification of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia into one country took off. The new unified national capital was moved to Bayda and the combined countries attention was removed from the Sinai. This unification movement and the political, economic and cultural success that was achieved was to have far reaching effects as well on the political changes in the Levant.
See: http://libyanrepublicoftunisiamisr.blogspot.com/
It all started in the most unlikely of places. The Sinai.
But first a quick outline of major events and realities before the transformation.
There had indeed been a major shakeup in countries throughout the Arab world. What started in Tunisia as a call for economic and social equality moved quickly to Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria and to lesser extents in Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian territories.
Even more long term regional conditions had existed in Iraq for many years. After the invasion by coalition forces the various factions, religious and political, had been boiling to ever higher tensions and with no end to the carnage in site. The Kurds in the Northern Region had begun to enjoy many long sought freedoms but were still at odds with Baghdad. There was also the ever present scenario of Iraq splitting into 3 separate countries with what would have become an even greater conflict as to who owned what and where.
The Lebanese were locked in a 4 or 5 way stalemate depending upon how you viewed the players. Again the entire country was on the continuing edge of collapse.
The Palestinians were divided both geographically and politically into 2 separate groups with little in common and no unified position or leadership to move the region forward to a sovereign state.
Syria had entered its second year of armed uprising against the Assad regime. While the Assad regime was hanging on against multi pronged assaults the rebel forces were again also split by religious and political goals. No matter the outcome it was almost a unanimous agreement that Assad would be hard to dislodge, if at all, and whatever might happen in the future it seemed that Syria was destined to be divided into a series of regional power bases and a country torn apart by violence. This also led to continued speculation of massive deaths from retribution and a very long recovery period economically and socially for the entire country.
Jordan, while compared to its neighbors was relatively stable, the ever continuing cascade of refugees from Syria now joining refugees from Iraq and elsewhere were putting the usual strains on the economic and social fabric of the tiny Kingdom. Actual Jordanians were becoming, with each passing day, a smaller and smaller group within their own country. From an economic and political standpoint to accept the mass of refugees, especially Palestinian refugees from Syria, the offer of aid on the one hand for the refugees from Europe and the reality that this may mean a very long term multi year responsibility for the refugees, leading to perhaps citizenship, was a great conflict for the nation.
The influx of refugees was mitigated by the newly created push by Israel within the UN to declare all Palestinian diaspora in the region who were now on the move again to no longer have claim to the right of return.
Which brings us finally to the Sinai. Besides the tourist havens along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba, much of the Sinai had long been neglected by the Egyptians. Indeed the two governorates were the two least populated governorates in the country. They were mostly populated by Bedouin with which the Egyptians had little in common and even less understanding. As the Bedouin were not "of the river" they were always treated with little regard and interest by the majority of Egyptians. The return of the Sinai from Israel completed in 1982 was more for political prestige than returning fellow Egyptians to the homeland.
After the Arab Spring in Egypt in 2011 the tourism industry in the Sinai collapsed. Tensions created by the Bedouin to receive more attention from Cairo let to kidnappings, bombings and other acts of violence. This coupled with the Gaza being attached to the Sinai and all the political, social and cultural problems of the Sinai were becoming a very time consuming strain on a country much more concerned about events in Egypt proper. First and foremost was the need for IMF loans and other financial investments to revive an Egyptian economy.
From where or from whom the idea was first established has been lost in the shuffle of history. But the idea arose to have Egypt agree to transfer sovereignty of the two Sinai governorates to the Kingdom of Jordan in exchange for IMF and other loan guarantees. The long term reasoning behind the offer was that it in a sense "killed two birds with one stone". Egypt would receive much needed aid while transferring a very troubled region on the edge of the country to a country that seemed better equipped to relate to and deal with the Bedouins.
The transfer would also mean that the Kingdom of Jordan would be the primary border country, along with Israel, of the Palestinian Territories.
But in reality what it also meant that not only could Jordan take aid from European sources, in the form of debt forgiveness and other forms of aid, the Kingdom would receive a vast addition of land with existing and future tourism and other financial prospects. This addition of land and financial resources was the second part of the equation to deal with massive influx of new refugees into the Kingdom. The additional lands and economic prospects would make it much easier to not only take care of the refugees but to also disperse them away from the population centers of Jordan.
Although the Sinai had many industries such as tourism and petroleum, against the scale of Egypt's entire economy they were very minimal. The same industries added to the Kingdom of Jordan were, on the other hand, a massive boost to the economy of the Kingdom. Providing attention to not only the tourist and petroleum industries, the land reforms and access to the national government that the Bedouin now received was quite significant. It did not hurt that the Jordanian culture, which included large segments of Bedouin society, were much closer to the Bedouin citizens of the Sinai than they had ever been with Egypt proper.
The transfer of sovereignty from Egypt to Jordan contained the provision that all existing Egyptian citizens living in the Sinai would be allowed to remain there, as Egyptian citizens, as foreign workers and even landowners for as long as they wished. Or they could become Jordanian citizens upon acceptance by the Kingdom. The new Jordanian lands also meant the increase from 12 to 14 governorates. The addition of two completely new governorates in areas that had never been considered Jordanian lands was also have profound effects on how the people of Jordan viewed themselves in relation to the entire Levant. These two events were to have far reaching precedence in the coming months and years throughout the entire region and indeed the world.
The first benefit from the transfer was the return, almost overnight, of the great number of tourists who once flocked to the region. The second benefit was to change the western terminus of the Iraq/Aqaba oil pipeline to continue on to the oil terminal on the western shores of the Sinai.
It was also almost immediately agreed by the Kingdom and Israel to allow a secured, wall enclosed corridor just a few kilometers north of Eilat Israel that allow for a 4 lane highway, a two track railroad and a transit right of way for pipelines and electric power to connect the newly expanded Kingdom.
It was also during this period of reflecting on Egyptian boundaries and economic stimulus that the ground swell of support for the unification of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia into one country took off. The new unified national capital was moved to Bayda and the combined countries attention was removed from the Sinai. This unification movement and the political, economic and cultural success that was achieved was to have far reaching effects as well on the political changes in the Levant.
See: http://libyanrepublicoftunisiamisr.blogspot.com/
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