The Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq: March 2013

The transformation of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to the Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq came about much as the Arab Spring had. It was unexpected, developed in the most unlikely of circumstances and moved from idea to reality in rather unbelievable quickness.

It all started in the most unlikely of places. The Sinai.

But first a quick outline of major events and realities before the transformation.

There had indeed been a major shakeup in countries throughout the Arab world. What started in Tunisia as a call for economic and social equality moved quickly to Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria and to lesser extents in Lebanon, Jordan and the Palestinian territories.

Even more long term regional conditions had existed in Iraq for many years. After the invasion by coalition forces the various factions, religious and political, had been boiling to ever higher tensions and with no end to the carnage in site. The Kurds in the Northern Region had begun to enjoy many long sought freedoms but were still at odds with Baghdad. There was also the ever present scenario of Iraq splitting into 3 separate countries with what would have become an even greater conflict as to who owned what and where.

The Lebanese were locked in a 4 or 5 way stalemate depending upon how you viewed the players. Again the entire country was on the continuing edge of collapse.

The Palestinians were divided both geographically and politically into 2 separate groups with little in common and no unified position or leadership to move the region forward to a sovereign state.

Syria had entered its second year of armed uprising against the Assad regime. While the Assad regime was hanging on against multi pronged assaults the rebel forces were again also split by religious and political goals. No matter the outcome it was almost a unanimous agreement that Assad would be hard to dislodge, if at all, and whatever might happen in the future it seemed that Syria was destined to be divided into a series of regional power bases and a country torn apart by violence. This also led to continued speculation of massive deaths from retribution and a very long recovery period economically and socially for the entire country.

Jordan, while compared to its neighbors was relatively stable, the ever continuing cascade of refugees from Syria now joining refugees from Iraq and elsewhere were putting the usual strains on the economic and social fabric of the tiny Kingdom. Actual Jordanians were becoming, with each passing day, a smaller and smaller group within their own country. From an economic and political standpoint to accept the mass of refugees, especially Palestinian refugees from Syria, the offer of aid on the one hand for the refugees from Europe and the reality that this may mean a very long term multi year responsibility for the refugees, leading to perhaps citizenship, was a great conflict for the nation.

The influx of refugees was mitigated by the newly created push by Israel within the UN to declare all Palestinian diaspora in the region who were now on the move again to no longer have claim to the right of return.

Which brings us finally to the Sinai. Besides the tourist havens along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba, much of the Sinai had long been neglected by the Egyptians. Indeed the two governorates were the two least populated governorates in the country. They were mostly populated by Bedouin with which the Egyptians had little in common and even less understanding. As the Bedouin were not "of the river" they were always treated with little regard and interest by the majority of Egyptians. The return of the Sinai from Israel completed in 1982 was more for political prestige than returning fellow Egyptians to the homeland.

After the Arab Spring in Egypt in 2011 the tourism industry in the Sinai collapsed. Tensions created by the Bedouin to receive more attention from Cairo let to kidnappings, bombings and other acts of violence. This coupled with the Gaza being attached to the Sinai and all the political, social and cultural problems of the Sinai were becoming a very time consuming strain on a country much more concerned about events in Egypt proper. First and foremost was the need for IMF loans and other financial investments to revive an Egyptian economy.

From where or from whom the idea was first established has been lost in the shuffle of history. But the idea arose to have Egypt agree to transfer sovereignty of the two Sinai governorates to the Kingdom of Jordan in exchange for IMF and other loan guarantees. The long term reasoning behind the offer was that it in a sense "killed two birds with one stone". Egypt would receive much needed aid while transferring a very troubled region on the edge of the country to a country that seemed better equipped to relate to and deal with the Bedouins.

The transfer would also mean that the Kingdom of Jordan would be the primary border country, along with Israel, of the Palestinian Territories.

But in reality what it also meant that not only could Jordan take aid from European sources, in the form of debt forgiveness and other forms of aid, the Kingdom would receive a vast addition of land with existing and future tourism and other financial prospects. This addition of land and financial resources was the second part of the equation to deal with massive influx of new refugees into the Kingdom. The additional lands and economic prospects would make it much easier to not only take care of the refugees but to also disperse them away from the population centers of Jordan.

Although the Sinai had many industries such as tourism and petroleum, against the scale of Egypt's entire economy they were very minimal. The same industries added to the Kingdom of Jordan were, on the other hand, a massive boost to the economy of the Kingdom. Providing attention to not only the tourist and petroleum industries, the land reforms and access to the national government that the Bedouin now received was quite significant. It did not hurt that the Jordanian culture, which included large segments of Bedouin society, were much closer to the Bedouin citizens of the Sinai than they had ever been with Egypt proper.

The transfer of sovereignty from Egypt to Jordan contained the provision that all existing Egyptian citizens living in the Sinai would be allowed to remain there, as Egyptian citizens, as foreign workers and even landowners for as long as they wished. Or they could become Jordanian citizens upon acceptance by the Kingdom. The new Jordanian lands also meant the increase from 12 to 14 governorates. The addition of two completely new governorates in areas that had never been considered Jordanian lands was also have profound effects on how the people of Jordan viewed themselves in relation to the entire Levant. These two events were to have far reaching precedence in the coming months and years throughout the entire region and indeed the world.

The first benefit from the transfer was the return, almost overnight, of the great number of tourists who once flocked to the region. The second benefit was to change the western terminus of the Iraq/Aqaba oil pipeline to continue on to the oil terminal on the western shores of the Sinai.

It was also almost immediately agreed by the Kingdom and Israel to allow a secured, wall enclosed corridor just a few kilometers north of Eilat Israel that allow for a 4 lane highway, a two track railroad and a transit right of way for pipelines and electric power to connect the newly expanded Kingdom.

It was also during this period of reflecting on Egyptian boundaries and economic stimulus that the ground swell of support for the unification of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia into one country took off. The new unified national capital was moved to Bayda and the combined countries attention was removed from the Sinai. This unification movement and the political, economic and cultural success that was achieved was to have far reaching effects as well on the political changes in the Levant.

See: http://libyanrepublicoftunisiamisr.blogspot.com/

The Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq

Friday, March 29, 2013

The Sinai catalyst for Levant transformation.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013