Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Comment to an article by Christopher R. Hill. "Saving Syria and America" on the web site Project-Syndicate.org.

Comment to an article by Christopher R. Hill. "Saving Syria and America" on the web site  www.Project-Syndicate.org.  July 23, 2013

I would only propose that for a truly long term peaceful solution to not only the Syrian crisis but much of the Levant that your wonderful proposal have an important single reset in thinking.

Thus the nation evolving from what is currently Syria would indeed include the entire existing nation of Syria within its borders. Not to be divided. It would also be true that the nation evolving from what is now Syria would be a federal state, with broad local autonomy. And indeed the third also involves a carefully drafted and agreed upon parliament and constitutional framework.

But this could also be said, word for word, for Iraq. Or Lebanon. Indeed it is much of what the Palestinians have been demanding for their future nation, in principle with regards to Israel.

What is missing in this thinking is that what really makes sense, in the long term and for the entire region is if your statement is not just about Syria. But it is about a single nation that is the combination of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories. The Nation of Syriaq if you will.

http://bit.ly/11kckhj

All remain within their current borders. It would just be a single all inclusive border. All would be part of a federal state with broad local autonomy. All would concern the shape of the future parliament and constitutional framework. And again so forth.

Just as Iraq is sliding ever so closely to a three part Shia/Sunni/Kurdish state so too would a Nation of Syriaq become a Federal Nation of Shia/Alawite, Sunni, Kurds. Druze, Christians and even remarkably perhaps a great number of Jews.

As all the nations of the region are falling apart the ironic answer may be that what they really need instead is all join together.

What the US could do is create a scenario of a central core for such a nation in a compromise capital of Amman. For decades now Amman has been the go to place for diaspora refugees from virtually every surrounding and inclusive nation mentioned. The only group who have not shown up in numbers are perhaps the Kurds.

What the US needs to be able to do is show what a unified Syriaq would entail. To the Shia, the Sunni, the Kurds, the Arab League, the Russians, Iran, the EU, the Israelis.

What the US also needs to do is allow that the Syrian Army, to a very great extent, would remain intact and become the core of a Syriaq Army. What the US also needs to do is let Russia take the wheel on making it work from ground. Alone and with the people within Syriaq.

What the US could do however is convince all parties, including the Jordanians, that a nation of Syriaq has its best chance of succeeding as a Hashemite Kingdom. And with Amman as the central axis of a much larger Federal State, first of all as the capital of a nation of 70 million, Amman and surrounding region would no longer be a city without a major industry. Being the capital would provide a stable economic base for the entire region. It would also mean hundreds of thousands of refugees could go home. And this time for good. This is a concept the people of Jordan have not had since the nation was created.

The second part of the axis is that it is between all the other nations and the Palestinians. While Palestinians may not have considered merging with Jordan one on one in the past to any great degree, being part of a much larger Syriaq would be a tempting proposition. Both for the Palestinians in Palestine and those elsewhere in Syriaq.

It is no accident that the Iraqi national anthem is a Palestinian song. It is no accident that before the troubles in Syria, Syrian children used to stand in class and recite "we are all Palestinians."

As members of the Nation of Syriaq, the negotiating stance between Syriaq and Israel might have a much more peace oriented nature and foundation. The people of Syriaq would need to turn inward to both create and rebuild a new nation.

Before the end of World War I this was pretty much the hope of millions of Arabs in the Levant anyway. A single united country. It would be a century late but better late than never.

A single nation with Basra, Baghdad, Damascus, Erbil, Aleppo, Beirut, Al Quds, and Amman. That is a nation that has a promise to do great things.

And again. the people of Syria would remain united within the same border, as would the people of Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and perhaps the Palestinians. 

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-america-should-engage-with-syria-by-christopher-r--hill#i85Kr4rWsSHg4Btx.99 

Monday, July 8, 2013

Comment by me about Egypt's future (with relevance to Syriaq), Al-Monitor.com July 8, 2013

What key people in government, the press, academia and the average person in the street in Egypt, along with those same groups in Libya and Tunisia need to do is read the US Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, the Federalist Papers and the US Constitution, making sure to note the dates. I assure you it would be most revealing and perhaps have many rethinking myths about how nations are founded and succeed. 

Very careful reading of the US Declaration of Independence one finds that it is not a document announcing the formation of a single nation to remove British tyranny. It is a document announcing that 13 separate states are joining together to remove British tyranny, but that they intend to remain 13 separate states at the end of the revolt. For well over 100 years most of the states had related one on one with Britain and with each other. Each had their own separate governments and legislative bodies. There was not a lot of love lost between most of the states up until the time of the Revolution. It was only through necessity over time that the 13 states realized that they would have to form a more singular nation to not only win the war but to survive afterwards. They could not make it individually. Even at the start of the new nation it was under the Articles of Confederation that basically gave the central government the right to deal with foreign powers and that was about it. All other powers rested with each individual state.

Again the states began to realize that going it alone individually  each state was not going to prosper. A good 13 years after the Declaration, and very careful arguments in the Federalist Papers, the US adapted a remarkable separation and balance of powers in the US Constitution to please all sides in order to form a worthy functioning government. Only then, 13 years later did they form a truly United States of America. It should be noted however that for about the first 50 years it was, as a rule, stated that "The United States ARE". It was only after long slow integration did the phrase become widely stated as "The United States IS". Even today, some 235+ years later the US is still a work in progress. 

This realization must come very soon to Egypt, Libya and Tunisia that they do not have a common enemy in the form of a foreign nation. What they do have is a common enemy in that they are all economic and political catastrophe's waiting to happen. But as a single nation they have unbelievable potential to find those resources, talents, markets, diversity, and yes similarities that already exist within a united and common nation. Only in sharing all of their common resources will they have a very great chance to succeed both economically and politically. 

The same balance and separation of powers needed by Egypt to accommodate both Coptics and Salafists is the same kind of compromise needed to find common ground between Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. If structured well it could very well lead to the addition of Sudan in a few short years. 

A newly united nation would have the ability to rebuild Libya, drastically improve the water system in Egypt, re-invigorate markets from tourism, agriculture, transportation, apparel, building materials, the list goes on. 

And at the core of such a transformation has to be reconciliation across the board. Libya cannot have 1/6th of its population stranded as diaspora in Egypt and Tunisia. Such talent, in all nations, cannot be wasted. Any progress has to start now, immediately with reaching out to all involved that the Muslim Brotherhood must be a part of any solution going forward. Many must keep positions in the government. Their press must be allowed to speak. You cannot build a greater nation without them. 

Three years ago the Arab Spring was impossible/unthinkable. One month ago a change in Egyptian government was impossible/unthinkable. A United Arab Republic of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia might not only be not impossible, it might be an absolute imperative to economic, political, cultural and humanitarian success in the entire Arab region.

bit.ly/16gf9Do 

@tms5510. One might find just the idea, not even the fulfillment, but again the idea of a United Arab Republic might find the nations of the Levant also realizing that they are much better off as one large nation of their own, as was envisioned in the early 20th century before the West carved it up. People speak constantly of the disintegration of many of the nations of the Levant. I think the opposite might some day soon become the reality when they all come to realize that they are better off as one large nation than as a group of 5 or 8 or 10 smaller nations. Egypt, Libya and Tunisia could lead the way.

bit.ly/11kckhj