I read your article about Syria with great interest. It was not only a balanced article but viewed the situation honestly and with acknowledgement of all the key players usually mentioned.
I do have a suggestion for the possibility of a more peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis that does not include an increasing arms race.
As you have rightly pointed out there is not a neighbor of Syria that has not been affected in a major way by the continuing conflict. I believe it is these affected neighbors that hold the key to peace in the region, with perhaps a lot less involvement by any country with the exception of perhaps Russia and the blessing, however public, of Iran.
It is my contention that the only real path to peace is a unified active or agreement too, by all neighbors concerned for the return to the dream and concept of a Greater Syria. Or as I prefer to call it Syriaq.
There is no need to go into the complete disintegration of the entire region going back to the creation of Mandates for France and Britain at the end of World War I. Suffice to say it evolved into ever smaller and smaller political, religious and economic divisions throughout the Levant.
Much speculation has been made as to whether the end result would be the disintegration or Balkanizing of Syria. I believe that actually the reverse is the key to peace.
If indeed there was to become an effort to steer the entire region towards the creation of Syriaq to solve the conflict it would, in my opinion need just a few key, non negotiable realities to make it happen.
1. The first, no matter who wins, or compromises or unifies or shape of the resulting government, if the major core of the Syriaq Army is not the current Syrian Army left in place and a part of the resultant nation then it will indeed be chaos for a great long time. Years in fact.
2. If the resulting Syriaq is not a Hashemite Kingdom with the unified capital in Amman then it will never become a multi religious sectarian nation.
3. All attempts should be made to ensure that the Palestinians are actively invited and made to feel as though they are the very core component of any Levant wide peace settlement. It is the Palestinians who, of all the nations involved, strike the greatest sense of being of one common purpose among all the nations of the Levant. And as Jordan is the Keystone nation to Palestine again being a Hashemite Kingdom with the capital in Amman is hard to deny. (Borders with Israel would still have to be negotiated, but it would be between Israel and Syriaq not Israel and the Palestinian Territories.)
4. Any solution, again of any area, people, final borders, leaders and such, if the Russians are not asked to remain, with all military installations included, by whoever or whatever form a post Syrian government becomes, again its chances for success are greatly reduced if not impossible for an conclusion for years to come.
Those are it. All else are debatable, deniable, win some loose some, would have been nice, too many egos not left at the door and just plain isn't happening.
Almost everyone besides the most extreme of the rebel forces vaguely agree upon the need for new elections for the Syrian people to decide on a new government. It is my thoughts that it is what that first election should be about, who should vote, that it should include all of Syria's current Arab neighbors and it should happen as soon as possible.
I would suggest dividing the Levant into 8 regions. Syria, Lebanon, Kurdish Autonomous Regions, Sunni dominated Iraqi governorates, and Shia dominated Iraqi governorates, Jordan, the West Bank, Gaza.
I would also suggest that any thought of unity just between any two of these regions, with the possible exception of the West Bank and Gaza, would not only not work but would not be considered at this time, if ever.
Each votes yes or no to join the Hashemite Kingdom of Syriaq (with the capital in Amman). That simple. Just debating the concept all across the Levant could also, I believe, send great numbers of combatants to a area wide cease fire to debate the pros and cons of what can be gained or lost in joining the nation of Syriaq. Those voting no remain just as they were before the vote and back to business as usual. (perhaps a modified Jordanian Constitution would suffice until a new Constitution could be written and unity government formed.
I am fully aware of the irony if Jordan votes no. However it is my contention, that when it would be pointed out that by Amman being the capital of a much larger nation, of say 40 to 70 million people, the city and region of Amman would at long last loose the "living on the edge economically" reality of the last 100 years. It would also mean that most, if not all of the endless cycle of new refugees constantly swarming into the region might also finally come to a halt. But as Amman has been one of the primary "go to" refugee destinations for decades now it has developed an often deserved image and sensibility of neutrality over the years.
I also think such a formatted vote would allow for many various outcomes all of which are not earth shattering if voted no and very exciting possibilities for those who vote yes.
I would imagine that the majority of Syrians would vote to accept joining Syriaq if the 4 key points mentioned above were a part of the pre-vote "election promises". If electing the King of Jordan to the Head of State, it would mean that Assad might possibly be elected PM at some early future date but the rest of the Assad power base would have a clear alternative and a much greater chance of retribution worries. The number 3 core issue of also becoming one with the Palestinians is a long held Syrian core of their social dogma. Also to keep in mind, the alternative goal of creating a Greater Syriaq might be something for which Assad would willingly step aside.
Jordan for the reasons already mentioned. The West Bank I would hope would vote yes as it might be, finally the leverage they need to achieve peace. I also think that if it was just a vote to join Jordan the outcome would be much different. But as a Levant wide peace initiative it would be hard to deny.
Gaza is an open question with no honest idea how it would vote. Thus the separate regional voting. It might end up that there is a Syriaq and just Gaza is Palestine. (in my blog I also include the Sinai in Syriaq. It is too long and involved and a distraction for this email but I do consider it a major if not critical point for both Syria and Egypt.)
Sunni Iraq I believe would jump at the chance. As it would be a compromise but by the sharing of power between the King and the Syrian Army and Alawite core the Sunni Iraqi access to any sort of power, even within their own region, would be greatly enhanced.
The Kurdish Autonomous Regions would vote to join if they were assured continued Autonomy. I see no reason for that to change. They would also possibly pick up governorates the former Iraq and Syria in the new Syriaq.
That only leaves Shia Iraq and Lebanon. For the Shia of Iraq it would mean returning to a minority group within a possible larger whole. But it would also mean joining again, as with Syrians, with their Palestinian fellow countrymen. Iraq's national anthem is a Palestinian song. Another thing for the Shia to consider is that they would both joining the Alawites and Lebanese Shia in covering their backs but perhaps taking advantage of the fact that many Alawites have had a long period of being economically successful.
The final considerations, that of Iranian influence, it would seem to me that Iran would give its blessing for two reasons. One is that "inside the tent" is better than being outside looking in. The second would be the great number of Shia holy shrines within Sunni areas of Iraq, Jordan and elsewhere and normalization might mean greater access to them over time. The final reason would be the possibility of a solution to the Palestinian question might ease world tension towards Iran in the world community.
Lebanon is about as easy to predict as Gaza. I have no idea. The one factor I think often overlooked by everyone in the region for decades concerning Hezbollah is the fact that in Lebanon they pretty much sit beside the Litani River from headwaters to the sea. And the Litani is by far the largest river in the entire Levant that sends millions of gallons of some of the freshest water into the Mediterranean each and every year. Unstopped. Never used. It is the great water waste tragedy of the entire region. The only diversion now for the Litani is to send water to Beirut. For years the Shia of the region had no political power to fund such water projects. Now with political power comes infighting and distractions of fighting elsewhere. If there was one region in the entire nation of a new Syriaq that could be converted to very productive agriculture in a very short amount of time, it is the lands the Hezbollah now live in. Turning their attention and giving financial aid to develop the Litani could be a massive game changer for all involved. ( I would also suggest that the entire Golan Heights and the former Syrian Governorate be made a Druze Autonomous Region for all the Druze in Lebanon, Syria and Israel, again without regard to any outcome of any vote.).
Exactly one century ago the dream of almost all the peoples of the Levant who knew of life beyond the horizon dreamed of one day living in a Greater Syria with the Hashemite King as their leader. They were even promised this by France and Britain. While they did get compromise and divided positions the dream of Greater Syria died every so slowly a greater death year after year. The Levant has, as mentioned before, been a mess ever since.
If the people of Syria, on all sides, want to have peace I think they need to look to a Syria that has been missing for this past century. There they might find not only the agreed upon peace they so desire, but the chance to move forward.
Whatever happens, it would be a shame to not literally "think outside the box" for a solution to the quagmire that is Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. For each the answer to their current ongoing crisis might be as close as just across the border.
Thank you for your time. Best regards.
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